At the end of November 2023, the Indian subcontinent is set to experience a complex interplay of meteorological phenomena, promising a diverse range of weather and Rainfall conditions across different regions. The primary contributors to these changes include a trough in easterlies, a Western Disturbance, and the possibility of a Cyclonic Circulation.
Trough in Easterlies:
A trough in easterlies, stretching from the Maldives to the north Maharashtra coast in the lower tropospheric levels, is anticipated to impact weather conditions from November 25th. This weather system is expected to bring light to moderate rainfall to most places, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning at isolated locations. Furthermore, isolated heavy rainfall is predicted over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal on November 25th, 2023.
Interaction with Western Disturbance:
Simultaneously, a fresh Western Disturbance, identified as a trough in middle tropospheric westerlies, is observed at an altitude of 5.8 km above mean sea level. Extending along Long. 55°E to the north of Lat 25°N, this disturbance is likely to approach northwest India, creating an upper-level trough that extends to the East central Arabian Sea off the Gujarat-Maharashtra-Goa coasts in the next 2-3 days.
- Light to moderate rainfall in Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan & Goa, Marathwada, and Madhya Pradesh from November 25th to 27th, with maximum activity on November 26th, 2023.
- Thunderstorms and lightning accompanied by hail at isolated places over south Rajasthan, southwest Madhya Pradesh, north Madhya Maharashtra, and north Marathwada during November 26th-27th.
- Isolated heavy rainfall over East Rajasthan, Vidarbha, north Madhya Maharashtra & Gujarat Region on November 26th, and over southwest Madhya Pradesh on November 26th-27th.
- Light rainfall at isolated places in the Western Himalayan Region and plains of Northwest India from November 26th-28th, with thunderstorms & lightning accompanied by hail at isolated places over Uttarakhand on November 27th.
Cyclonic Circulation in the Andaman Sea:
Around November 26th, a Cyclonic Circulation is likely to emerge over the South Andaman Sea and its surrounding areas. Under its influence, a Low low-pressure area is expected to form over the South Andaman Sea & adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal by November 27th. This system is projected to move west-northwestwards, potentially intensifying into a Depression over the Southeast Bay of Bengal around November 29th, 2023.
Anticipated impacts of this system include:
- Light to moderate rainfall with isolated thunderstorms & lightning over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during November 26th–27th. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely during November 26th – 28th.
- Squally weather with wind speeds reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph over the South Andaman Sea on November 26th. This is expected to escalate to wind speeds reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over the South Andaman Sea & adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal from November 27th-28th. Additionally, wind speeds may reach 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph over the South Andaman Sea & adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal from November 29th-30th.
- Fishermen are advised to exercise caution and avoid venturing into the South Andaman Sea on November 26th & 27th and over the Southeast Bay of Bengal from November 27th to 30th.
Rest of the Country:
No significant weather events are predicted over the rest of the country during this period.
Stay tuned for further updates as meteorological conditions evolve, and ensure you are adequately prepared for the specific weather patterns anticipated in your region.
Source: India Meteorological Department
