Weather: The advance of the Southwest Monsoon is steadily progressing across India, marking significant shifts in weather patterns. The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is extending through various coordinates, with conditions favoring further advance into Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and other regions in the coming days.
Current Northern Limit of Monsoon
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) currently extends through the coordinates 20.5°N/60°E, 20.5°N/63°E, 20.5°N/70°E, Navsari, Jalgaon, Amravati, Chandrapur, Bijapur, Sukma, Malkangiri, Vizianagaram, 19.5°N/88°E, 21.5°N/89.5°E, 23°N/89.5°E, and Islampur. This progression marks the steady advance of the Southwest Monsoon across various parts of India. The conditions are favorable for further advancement into additional regions such as Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Northwest Bay of Bengal, parts of Gangetic West Bengal, the remaining parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and some areas in Bihar over the next 3-4 days.
Weather Systems and Forecast
Western Disturbance and Rainfall in North India
A Western Disturbance as a trough in mid-tropospheric westerlies is currently located along longitude 67°E north of latitude 30°N. This system is expected to bring isolated to scattered light rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) to regions including Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan from June 18th to 20th, 2024. Additionally, strong surface winds, with speeds reaching 25-35 kmph, are expected over the plains of Northwest India for the next five days.
Cyclonic Circulations and Rainfall in Northeastern and Eastern India
A cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam, combined with a north-south trough from north Bihar to southern parts of Gangetic West Bengal, is generating strong southwesterly/southerly winds from the Bay of Bengal to the northeastern states. This interaction is expected to result in widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim for the next five days. Notably, isolated heavy to hefty rainfall is likely in these regions, with extremely heavy rain anticipated over Meghalaya and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal on June 18th and Arunachal Pradesh on June 19th.
Cyclonic Circulations and Rainfall in Western and Southern India
A cyclonic circulation over the Northeast Arabian Sea adjoining Saurashtra, along with other troughs in the region, is expected to bring scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning over Gujarat, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Marathwada for the next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall is also anticipated over Konkan & Goa, ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra, and the Gujarat region from June 20th to 22nd. Moreover, an east-west trough from Goa to south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and a cyclonic circulation over the Southeast Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast are likely to cause fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning over Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, and isolated rainfall over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal during the same period.
Heat Wave and Weather Warnings
The heatwave conditions persist in parts of India, with maximum temperatures reaching 44-46°C over most of the northern plains, which is 5-8°C above normal. Severe heatwave conditions are expected in many parts of Uttar Pradesh on June 18th-19th, and in Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi on June 18th. Isolated heatwave conditions may also affect Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, Jammu-Kashmir, north Madhya Pradesh, and north Coastal Andhra Pradesh. These intense heat conditions are likely to abate after June 19th. Additionally, warm night conditions are anticipated in isolated pockets of East Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, contributing to the overall discomfort.
In summary, the advancement of the Southwest Monsoon is steadily progressing, with significant weather systems influencing rainfall patterns across India. While some regions will experience beneficial rains, others will endure heatwave conditions, highlighting the diverse climatic impacts during this transitional period.
Source: India Meteorological Department
