Cyclonic Storm: On October 22, 2024, a well-marked low-pressure system over the East central Bay of Bengal intensified into a depression, located near 15.4° N latitude and 91.2° E longitude. This system is approximately 730 km southeast of Paradip (Odisha), 770 km south-southeast of Sagar Island (West Bengal), and 740 km south-southeast of Khepupara (Bangladesh).
The depression is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm by October 23, 2024. It will continue moving west-northwestwards, and by the morning of October 24, 2024, it may strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm over the northwest Bay of Bengal. The system is projected to cross the Odisha and West Bengal coasts between Puri and Sagar Island, with wind speeds of 100-110 km/h, gusting up to 120 km/h during the night of October 24 and the morning of October 25, 2024.
Low-Pressure Area Over the Arabian Sea: Cyclonic Storm
A separate low-pressure area persists over the west central Arabian Sea. This system is moving west-northwestwards away from the Indian coast and is expected to weaken within the next 12 hours. While this system does not pose an immediate threat to the Indian mainland, continued monitoring is essential to ensure preparedness.
Cyclonic Circulation Over Tamil Nadu
In South Peninsular India, an upper-air cyclonic circulation remains active over Tamil Nadu, affecting both lower and middle tropospheric levels. This has led to increased rainfall across several regions. Light to moderate rainfall, coupled with isolated thunderstorms and lightning, is expected over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Mahe, and parts of Karnataka. Heavy rainfall may also occur in isolated regions of Kerala, South Interior Karnataka, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh during the week. The system is expected to persist, bringing intermittent showers to these regions.
Forecast and Warnings for East India: Cyclonic Storm
East India, particularly Odisha and West Bengal, is expected to experience significant rainfall due to the developing cyclonic storm. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Odisha on October 23 and 26, with extremely heavy rainfall on October 24 and 25. Similarly, Gangetic West Bengal will see light to moderate rainfall, with isolated heavy rainfall on October 23, escalating to very heavy rainfall on October 24 and 25. Jharkhand may experience isolated heavy rainfall on October 24. Residents in these regions are advised to stay updated on weather warnings and take necessary precautions to avoid potential hazards.
Conclusion
As multiple weather systems develop across India, including a strengthening cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal, staying informed and prepared for the coming days is crucial. Authorities have issued warnings for heavy to very heavy rainfall, particularly in East and South India, while regions in the west and northeast are expected to remain relatively dry.
Source: India Meteorological Department
