The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported a significant advancement of the Southwest Monsoon. The Northern Limit of Monsoon currently extends through 20.5°N/60°E, 20.5°N/63°E, 20.5°N/70°E, Navsari, Jalgaon, Mandla, Pendra Road, Jharsuguda, Balasore, Haldia, Pakur, Sahibganj, and Raxaul. Favorable conditions are anticipated for the further progression of the monsoon into additional parts of the North Arabian Sea, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, and East Uttar Pradesh within the next 3-4 days.
Weather Systems and Forecasts
Cyclonic Circulation Over Northeast Assam A cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam is expected to influence weather patterns in the region. This will result in widespread light to moderate rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, & gusty winds (30-40 km/h) over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, & Sub-Himalayan West Bengal over the next 5 days. Additionally, isolated heavy rainfall is anticipated over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh during this period, with very heavy rainfall likely in Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim from June 24-26 and isolated heavy rainfall over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, & Tripura on June 22.
Cyclonic Circulation Over Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh A cyclonic circulation over Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh, coupled with an east-west trough from northeast Rajasthan to Manipur, will lead to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 km/h) over Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands for the next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over Bihar and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands from June 22-26, Odisha on June 22, and Jharkhand from June 24-26. Bihar may also experience very heavy rainfall from June 24-26.
Rainfall Along the West Coast A trough off the Karnataka and Kerala coasts, combined with strengthening lower level winds along the west coast, will bring scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning to Gujarat, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Marathwada over the next five days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over Konkan & Goa and the ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra from June 22-26, Gujarat and Marathwada on June 23, and southeast Rajasthan from June 24-26.
Rainfall in Southern and Central India Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 km/h) is expected over Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, and isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal over the next five days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely over Kerala & Mahe, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu from June 22-26, Lakshadweep on June 22-23, and Telangana on June 22. Extremely heavy rainfall is also anticipated over Coastal Karnataka on June 22-23, Konkan & Goa on June 23-24, and Kerala & Mahe and South Interior Karnataka on June 23.
Cyclonic Circulation Over Vidarbha A cyclonic circulation over Vidarbha will bring fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (40-50 km/h) to Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh over the next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over Vidarbha on June 22-23, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh on June 22.
Western Disturbance and Cyclonic Circulation in Northwest Uttar Pradesh A Western Disturbance, observed as a trough in the middle tropospheric westerlies, and an induced cyclonic circulation over northwest Uttar Pradesh will result in isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 km/h) over Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan during the next five days.
Easterlies from Bay of Bengal Lower level easterlies from the Bay of Bengal will cause scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Uttarakhand and East Uttar Pradesh over the next seven days. Isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over Uttarakhand from June 23-26 and East Uttar Pradesh from June 24-26.
Heat Wave Warning
Maximum temperatures were recorded in the range of 40-42°C in parts of West Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and isolated pockets of Haryana-Delhi and Gujarat. Maximum temperature departures were below normal by 2-4°C in some parts of Northwest India. Heat wave conditions are very likely in isolated pockets of West Uttar Pradesh from June 22-24 and Jammu division from June 23-26, which are expected to abate thereafter.
Residents in the affected areas are advised to stay updated with the latest weather bulletins and take necessary precautions to ensure safety during this period of dynamic weather conditions.
Source: India Meteorological Department
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