Weather: The monsoon season is a critical period for India, bringing much-needed rain to sustain agriculture and replenish water supplies. The northern limit of the monsoon currently passes through coordinates and key locations, including 19.5°N/60°E, 19.5°N/65°E, 19.0°N/70°E, Thane, Ahmednagar, Beed, Nizamabad, Sukma, Malkangiri, Vizianagaram, 19.5°N/88°E, 21.5°N/89.5°E, 23°N/89.5°E, and Islampur. As the monsoon advances, it brings varying weather systems and conditions across the country. Here is a detailed forecast and warnings for the coming days.
Weather Systems and Forecast
Cyclonic Circulations and Rainfall
A cyclonic circulation is currently affecting northeast Assam in the lower tropospheric levels, accompanied by strong southwesterly/southerly winds from the Bay of Bengal. This system is expected to bring:
- Widespread Light to Moderate Rainfall: Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim will experience fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) over the next seven days.
- Isolated Heavy Rainfall: Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh will see isolated heavy rainfall from June 10th to 14th. Nagaland will experience similar conditions from June 12th to 14th. Very heavy rainfall is likely over Assam & Meghalaya from June 11th to 14th, and over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim from June 10th to 12th, and Arunachal Pradesh from June 12th to 14th.
- Rainfall Over Southern and Western Regions: Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe, and Lakshadweep will see fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (40-50 kmph) over the next 4-5 days. Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal will have isolated light to moderate rainfall during this period.
- Heavy to Extremely Heavy Rainfall: Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, South Interior Karnataka, and Kerala & Mahe will experience isolated heavy rainfall from June 10th to 12th. Very heavy rainfall is expected over South Interior Karnataka from June 10th to 11th, and over north Konkan and north Madhya Maharashtra on June 10th. North Interior Karnataka will likely see very heavy rainfall on June 12th and 13th. Extremely heavy falls are expected over south Konkan & Goa, south Madhya Maharashtra, and Coastal Karnataka on June 10th, and over North Interior Karnataka on June 10th and 11th.
A cyclonic circulation over east Bihar in the lower tropospheric levels will cause:
- Scattered Rainfall: Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh will experience isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) from June 11th to 14th. Southern parts of East Madhya Pradesh may see isolated hailstorms and squally winds (50-60 kmph) on June 10th.
A Western Disturbance seen as a trough in middle tropospheric westerlies along longitude 70°E north of latitude 28°N, along with a cyclonic circulation over northwest Uttar Pradesh, will bring:
- Light Rainfall and Thunderstorms: West Rajasthan will have isolated very light rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) on June 10th, while East Rajasthan will experience these conditions over the next five days.
Heat Wave and Hot Weather Warnings
High temperatures continue to affect various regions:
- Extreme Heat: Maximum temperatures reached 42-45°C in many parts of Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, with some areas in north Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Bihar, and Gujarat experiencing temperatures above normal by 2-4°C.
- Heat Wave Alerts: Isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Gangetic West Bengal are likely to experience heat wave conditions from June 10th to 14th. Jammu division, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, West Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh will also face similar conditions from June 11th to 14th, with Odisha experiencing heat waves on June 11th and 12th. Uttar Pradesh will have heat wave conditions on June 10th, with severe heat wave conditions expected from June 11th to 14th.
- Hot and Humid Weather: Isolated pockets of Odisha will experience hot and humid weather on June 10th, 13th, and 14th.
As the monsoon progresses, these dynamic weather patterns will continue to evolve, impacting various regions differently. It is crucial to stay updated with the latest forecasts and take necessary precautions to stay safe during extreme weather conditions.
Source: India Meteorological Department
