Heavy Rainfall Forecast: The Southwest Monsoon has withdrawn from the remaining parts of Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and most parts of the northern Bay of Bengal. The line of monsoon withdrawal now stretches through Gopalpur, Raipur, Khargone, Nandurbar, Navsari, and other regions. Weather conditions are favorable for the complete withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from the rest of the country within the next 24 hours. This retreat marks the end of the rainy season in many areas.
Heavy Rainfall Forecast: Onset of Northeast Monsoon
Simultaneously, the onset of easterly and northeasterly winds is paving the way for the Northeast Monsoon to begin. The monsoon is expected to bring rainfall over the southeastern peninsular region, with the south and adjoining central Bay of Bengal witnessing the start of rainfall activity. This transition will significantly impact states like Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and parts of Andhra Pradesh.
Heavy Rainfall Forecast: Weather Systems Influencing the Transition
The low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal has developed into a well-marked low-pressure system. It is expected to intensify into a depression, moving towards the north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and south Andhra Pradesh coasts in the coming days.
Additionally, a depression over the west-central Arabian Sea, near the Oman coast, is weakening and is likely to dissipate into a low-pressure area soon. Meanwhile, a cyclonic circulation over the west-central Bay of Bengal is influencing weather conditions along the southern coast of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Rainfall Forecasts and Warnings
Over the next week, southern peninsular India will receive widespread rainfall. Areas like Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh will experience moderate to heavy rain, with isolated regions witnessing hefty downpours. For instance, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and parts of south Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience heavy rainfall on October 16, while heavy rain is also forecasted for interior Karnataka on October 17. Other regions in the west and central parts of India, such as Konkan, Goa, and Maharashtra, may experience scattered light to moderate rainfall.
Heavy Rainfall Forecast: Conclusion
The transition from the Southwest Monsoon to the Northeast Monsoon is underway, marking a significant shift in India’s weather patterns. The coming days will see varying rainfall intensities across different regions, influencing local agricultural activities and daily life. With the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon nearly complete, attention now shifts to the impact of the Northeast Monsoon, particularly on southern India.
