Monsoon: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has provided an extensive weather update, detailing the further advance of the Southwest Monsoon and the associated rainfall forecast for various regions of India. The Northern Limit of Monsoon continues to extend through several key points, marking its progression into new areas.
Northern Limit of Monsoon: The Northern Limit of Monsoon currently passes through the coordinates 23°N/60°E, 23°N/65°E, and cities such as Mundra, Mehsana, Udaipur, Shivpuri, Siddhi, Lalitpur, Chaibasa, Haldia, Pakur, Sahibganj, and Raxaul. Conditions are expected to become favorable for the Southwest Monsoon to advance further into the remaining parts of the North Arabian Sea, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, northern Punjab, and northern Haryana over the next 2-3 days.
Weather Systems and Forecast & Warnings: Several weather systems are influencing the current conditions, leading to varied rainfall patterns across the country:
- Trough at Mean Sea Level: Running off the Maharashtra-central Kerala coasts.
- Cyclonic Circulation: Present over central Gujarat in lower & middle tropospheric levels, with a trough extending to east Vidarbha.
Monsoon: Rainfall Forecast
- Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh; scattered to fairly widespread over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal over the next 5 days.
- Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Gujarat Region, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Karnataka from June 27-30 & July 1; Tamil Nadu, North Interior Karnataka, Telangana, Saurashtra & Kutch on June 27; Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala & Mahe, South Interior Karnataka on June 27-28.
- Isolated very heavy rainfall is expected over Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka on June 27-28; South Interior Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe on June 27; and north Madhya Pradesh on July 1.
Western Disturbance and Additional Forecasts:
- A Western Disturbance in the middle tropospheric westerlies is observed along Long. 64°E to the north of Lat. 28°N, with associated cyclonic circulation over northwest Rajasthan and a trough extending to Manipur.
- Strong winds from the Bay of Bengal are affecting east & northeast India, leading to:
- Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during the next 5 days.
- Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) over East Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and Gangetic West Bengal.
- Isolated heavy rainfall over Uttarakhand, East Rajasthan & Uttar Pradesh from June 27-30 & July 1; West Rajasthan on June 27; Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, and Punjab from June 28-30 & July 1.
- Isolated very heavy rainfall over Uttarakhand from June 28-30; East Uttar Pradesh on June 28-29; Haryana on June 29-30; West Uttar Pradesh on June 29-30 & July 1; and northeast Rajasthan on July 1.
Maximum temperatures in some parts of West Rajasthan, Punjab, East Rajasthan, and North Madhya Pradesh have been recorded between 40-43°C, above normal by 2-4°C.
As the Southwest Monsoon advances and various weather systems interact, residents across the affected regions are advised to stay updated with IMD bulletins and take necessary precautions to ensure safety during the anticipated heavy rainfall and associated weather events.
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