Monsoon Forecast: In a virtual media interaction held in New Delhi today, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) updated its Long-Range Forecast Outlook for the Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Season (June–September) 2024. Dr. Mritunjya Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, presented the forecast, outlining key highlights and predictions for the upcoming monsoon season.
According to the IMD forecast:
- Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long-period average (LPA), indicating above-normal rainfall.
- Central India and South Peninsular India are expected to experience above-normal rainfall, while Northwest India is likely to witness normal rainfall. Northeast India may experience below-normal rainfall.
- The Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), consisting of most rainfed agriculture areas, is expected to receive above-normal rainfall.
- Normal rainfall is expected over the country as a whole during June 2024, with above-normal rainfall predicted for most areas of the south peninsula and adjoining regions of central India.
- Above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country in June, except for southern peninsular India.
- Above-normal heatwave days are expected over most areas of Northwest India and adjoining regions of Central India during June.
- The forecast also provided insights into global climate phenomena affecting the monsoon, with the transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditions and the likelihood of La Niña conditions developing later in the season. Additionally, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing, but positive IOD conditions are expected to develop during the monsoon season according to global climate models.
The IMD’s updated forecast serves as a valuable tool for policymakers, farmers, and various stakeholders to prepare for and manage the impacts of the upcoming monsoon season. It underscores the importance of timely and accurate weather predictions in ensuring the resilience and sustainability of agricultural practices and overall socio-economic development.
