As the Southwest Monsoon continues its annual journey across the Indian subcontinent, its northern limit now extends through 16.5°N/60°E, 16.5°N/65°E, 16°N/70°E, Goa (Mormugao), Gadag, Narayanpet, Narsapur, 17°N/85°E, 19.5°N/88°E, 21.5°N/90°E, 23°N/89.5°E, and Islampur. Favorable conditions are set for further advances into the remaining parts of the central Arabian Sea, Karnataka, southern Maharashtra, Telangana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, southern Chhattisgarh, southern Odisha, and additional regions of the Westcentral and Northwest Bay of Bengal over the next three days.
Weather Systems and Forecasts:
Northeast India: A cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam at lower tropospheric levels, combined with strong southwesterly and southerly winds from the Bay of Bengal, will influence the weather significantly:
- Expect fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 km/h) across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim over the next seven days.
- Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Assam and Meghalaya from June 7th to 9th, with additional heavy rainfall on June 5th and 6th. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh are expected to experience isolated heavy rainfall from June 5th to 9th, and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura on June 8th and 9th.
Southern India: A cyclonic circulation over south Andhra Pradesh will drive the following weather patterns:
- Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 km/h) are expected over Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Karnataka. Scattered light to moderate rainfall is forecast for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Rayalaseema over the next five days.
- Isolated heavy rainfall is anticipated over Kerala, Mahe, Karnataka from June 5th to 9th, Tamil Nadu on June 5th and 6th, and Telangana on June 9th.
- Marathwada, Konkan & Goa, and Madhya Maharashtra will see scattered light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 km/h) over the next three days, with fairly widespread rainfall expected thereafter for the subsequent 4-5 days. Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra may also experience isolated heavy rainfall from June 6th to 9th.
East and Central India: A cyclonic circulation over East Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Bihar, along with a trough running roughly along Long. 87°E to the north of Lat. 22°N, will influence weather conditions as follows:
- Isolated light rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 km/h) are likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, and Gangetic West Bengal. Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Vidarbha, and Madhya Pradesh will experience isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall over the next seven days.
Northwest India: A fresh Western Disturbance, marked by a cyclonic circulation over east Iran, along with prevailing southwesterly winds from the Arabian Sea, will impact the region:
- Isolated to scattered light rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 km/h) are expected over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand over the next 4-5 days.
- Isolated very light to light rainfall with similar weather conditions is likely over Punjab, Haryana, and West Uttar Pradesh from June 5th to 7th, East Uttar Pradesh on June 5th, and Rajasthan from June 5th to 8th.
- Dust storms are very likely over West Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi on June 5th, West Rajasthan from June 5th to 9th, and East Rajasthan from June 6th to 9th.
Heat Wave, Warm Night, and Hot & Humid Weather Warnings:
- Heatwave conditions are very likely in isolated pockets of East Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Bihar from June 5th to 9th. Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, and Rajasthan will also experience heatwave conditions on June 5th. Odisha will see heatwave conditions on June 5th and 6th.
- Uttar Pradesh is expected to face heatwave conditions on June 5th and 6th, with severe heatwave conditions from June 7th to 9th.
- Hot and humid weather is anticipated in isolated pockets of Odisha from June 7th to 9th and Gangetic West Bengal from June 6th to 9th.
Stay tuned for further updates as the Southwest Monsoon continues its advance, bringing much-needed relief and occasional weather challenges across the country.
Source: India Meteorological Department
