Monsoon: The depression over the northwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal, off the coasts of Odisha and northern Andhra Pradesh, has been moving west-northwestwards at a speed of 3 kmph over the past six hours. As of 0530 hours IST on July 20, 2024, it was centered near Chilika Lake in Odisha, at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 85.4°E. This position places it approximately 40 km south-southwest of Puri and 70 km east-northeast of Gopalpur. The depression is expected to continue moving west-northwestwards across Odisha and Chhattisgarh, gradually weakening over the next 24 hours.
Monsoon Trough and Shear Zone
An offshore trough extends from the South Gujarat coast to the North Kerala coast at mean sea level. This pattern is likely to persist for the next 2-3 days. Additionally, a shear zone is present in the lower and middle tropospheric levels, roughly along the 20°N latitude, tilting southwards with height.
Offshore Trough and Cyclonic Circulation
An offshore trough extends along the South Gujarat to North Kerala coasts at mean sea level. In the lower tropospheric levels, a cyclonic circulation is situated over the northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra.
Monsoon Forecast & Warnings
West, Central, East, and South Peninsular India
- Rainfall: Expect fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning over the next five days.
- Heavy Rainfall: Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is anticipated over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana, South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, and Vidarbha on July 20; Gujarat Region on July 21; and Saurashtra & Kutch on July 22.
- Very Heavy Rainfall: Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat State, Coastal & South Interior Karnataka over the next five days; Kerala & Mahe, Telangana on July 20-21; Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, and Marathwada on July 20; and Madhya Pradesh from July 20-23.
Northwest India
- Rainfall: Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning is expected over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, East Rajasthan, and Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Rajasthan over the next five days.
- Very Heavy Rainfall: Isolated very heavy rainfall is also likely over East Rajasthan on July 21; Himachal Pradesh on July 22-23; and Uttarakhand from July 20-22.
Northeast India
- Rainfall: Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning is expected over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, and Northeast India over the next five days.
- Heavy Rainfall: Heavy rainfall is very likely at isolated places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya over the next 4-5 days; and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on July 20-21.
Source: India Meteorological Department
