Monsoon: The monsoon trough is currently active and positioned near its normal location in the lower tropospheric levels. Additionally, a shear zone is present over north peninsular India in the middle tropospheric levels, tilting southwards with height. An offshore trough at mean sea level is running along the north Maharashtra to north Kerala coasts, and a cyclonic circulation over Kutch in the lower tropospheric levels is tilting southwestwards with height. Another cyclonic circulation is observed over northeast Assam and its neighborhood, with an east-west trough running from northeast Uttar Pradesh to the cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam in the lower tropospheric levels.
Monsoon: Forecast and Warnings
1. West and South Peninsular India:
- Expect fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, and Karnataka. Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected over the Gujarat Region, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, and Telangana. Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, and Rayalaseema during the next 5 days.
- Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Coastal Karnataka from July 11th-15th. Isolated heavy rainfall is expected over the Gujarat Region during July 11th-15th, North Interior Karnataka from July 11th-15th, Saurashtra & Kutch on July 11th, and Kerala & Mahe and South Interior Karnataka from July 12th-15th.
- Isolated very heavy rainfall is also likely over Goa on July 11th and Konkan from July 12th-15th.
2. East & Northeast India:
- Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning is very likely over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Bihar, and Northeast India. Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Odisha during the next 5 days.
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall is very likely at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya from July 11th-15th. Isolated heavy rainfall is expected over Jharkhand on July 11th & 12th, Odisha from July 12th to 15th, and Nagaland and Manipur on July 11th & 14th.
- Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is very likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Meghalaya, and Bihar on July 11th.
3. Northwest & Central India:
- Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning is very likely over Uttarakhand and Central India. Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected over Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, and East Rajasthan during the next 5 days. Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi will experience rainfall from July 11th-13th.
- Isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over East Uttar Pradesh & Chhattisgarh from July 11th-15th, Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh on July 11th & 12th, Himachal Pradesh from July 11th-13th, Jammu on July 12th & 13th, north Haryana, and north Punjab on July 12th, East Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh on July 11th.
- Isolated very heavy rainfall is also likely over East Uttar Pradesh and East Madhya Pradesh on July 11th.
These Monsoon conditions highlight the diverse and dynamic nature of the Indian monsoon, impacting multiple regions with varying intensities of rainfall and associated weather phenomena.
Source: India Meteorological Department
