The Northern Limit of the Southwest Monsoon currently extends through various coordinates and regions, marking its progress across the Indian subcontinent. The specific points of the limit are as follows: 20.5°N/60°E, 20.5°N/63°E, 20.5°N/70°E, Navsari, Jalgaon, Amravati, Chandrapur, Bijapur, Sukma, Malkangiri, Vizianagaram, 19.5°N/88°E, 21.5°N/89.5°E, 23°N/89.5°E, and Islampur.
Current conditions are favorable for the monsoon to advance further into several regions including parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, the Northwest Bay of Bengal, parts of Gangetic West Bengal, the remaining parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and parts of Bihar and Jharkhand within the next 2-3 days.
2. Weather Systems and Forecast
A cyclonic circulation over northeast Bangladesh, coupled with a trough in the lower tropospheric westerlies along Long. 88°E north of Lat. 22°N, is influencing the weather. Strong southwesterly and southerly winds from the Bay of Bengal are impacting Northeast India.
- Northeast India: Widespread light to moderate rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) are likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal for the next five days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is anticipated in these areas.
- Eastern India: Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) are expected over Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha.
3. Regional Rainfall Predictions
Further analysis of the cyclonic circulations reveals:
- Western and Central India: A cyclonic circulation over North Gujarat and another over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & adjoining Telangana will bring scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning to Gujarat, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Marathwada over the next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over Konkan & Goa and the ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra from June 20th to 23rd.
- Southern India: Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) are expected over Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal. Isolated heavy rainfall is anticipated over Kerala & Mahe, Coastal Karnataka from June 20th to 23rd, Tamil Nadu on June 22nd and 23rd, and South Interior Karnataka from June 21st to 23rd.
4. Heat Wave and Temperature Forecast
While the monsoon brings relief to many regions, high temperatures persist in others:
- North India: A Western Disturbance and an induced cyclonic circulation over North Pakistan and Punjab are expected to cause isolated to scattered light rainfall with thunderstorms and gusty winds (40-50 kmph) over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand from June 20th to 23rd. Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan will experience similar conditions on June 20th and 21st. Strong surface winds (30-40 kmph) are likely over the plains of Northwest India in the next 24 hours.
- Heat Wave Conditions: Severe heat wave conditions are very likely in parts of West Uttar Pradesh from June 20th to 23rd and East Uttar Pradesh on June 20th. Isolated pockets of Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi may also experience heat wave conditions on June 23rd. Warm night conditions are likely in parts of Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, and West Uttar Pradesh on June 20th. Odisha and Bihar are expected to experience hot and humid weather on June 20th and 21st.
The advance of the Southwest Monsoon brings a mix of relief and challenges, with significant rainfall in many regions and persistent heat waves in others. These dynamic weather patterns highlight the diverse climatic conditions across India during this season.
Source: India Meteorological Department
