Heavy Rainfall Expected: As the Southwest Monsoon continues to retreat, the withdrawal line is currently passing through 29°N/84°E, Nautanwa, Sultanpur, Panna, Narmada Puram, Khargone, Nandurbar, Navsari, and 20°N/70°E. Favorable conditions suggest that the monsoon will further withdraw from the remaining parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and more areas in Maharashtra over the next 2-3 days.
Weather Systems Impacting Monsoon Withdrawal: Heavy Rainfall Expected
A few significant weather systems are influencing the current conditions:
- Cyclonic Circulation: A cyclonic circulation is present over the Lakshadweep area and its neighboring regions, extending up to the middle tropospheric level.
- Trough Formation: A trough runs from the southwest Bay of Bengal to the cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep, passing through south Tamil Nadu and south Kerala, extending up to lower tropospheric levels.
- Low-Pressure Area Development: Under these influences, a low-pressure area is expected to form over Lakshadweep and adjoining areas of the Arabian Sea around October 9th. This system is likely to move northwestward afterward, potentially impacting rainfall patterns.
Rainfall Forecast and Warnings (Next 7 Days): Heavy Rainfall Expected
South Peninsular India
- Widespread Rainfall: Light to moderate rainfall is expected over Lakshadweep, Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe, North Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during the week.
- Heavy Rainfall:
- Kerala & Mahe will likely experience isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall throughout the week.
- Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal may face heavy rainfall from October 8th and between 10th to 12th.
- South Interior Karnataka could see isolated heavy rainfall on October 8th, continuing till October 11th.
Northeast India: Heavy Rainfall Expected
- Moderate Rainfall: Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall is likely across Northeast India throughout the week.
- Heavy Rainfall:
- Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya are likely to experience isolated heavy rainfall from October 8th to 11th.
- Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura may witness heavy rainfall on October 8th and 9th.
West India
- Rainfall: Scattered light to moderate rainfall is expected over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Marathwada. However, dry weather is anticipated for Gujarat during the week.
Northwest, East & Central India
- Dry Weather: No significant rainfall is expected over these regions during the week, indicating a continued withdrawal of the monsoon from northern and central India.
Conclusion: Heavy Rainfall Expected
The retreat of the Southwest Monsoon continues to impact various regions in India. While parts of the country will experience reduced rainfall, South Peninsular and Northeast India will continue to receive moderate to heavy showers in the coming days. Stay updated on local weather warnings and take necessary precautions, especially in areas expecting heavy rainfall.
