Monsoon: The Southwest Monsoon continues its advance across India, bringing much-needed relief from the scorching summer heat. As of now, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) stretches through the coordinates 23°N/60°E, 23°N/65°E, Mundra, Mehsana, Udaipur, Shivpuri, Lalitpur, Siddhi, Chaibasa, Haldia, Pakur, Sahibganj, and Raxaul. Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for the monsoon to push further into the remaining parts of the North Arabian Sea, Gujarat State, Madhya Pradesh, more areas of Rajasthan, the rest of Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, most of East Uttar Pradesh, parts of West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, northern Punjab, and northern Haryana over the next three to four days.
Weather Systems and Forecast & Warnings
A trough at mean sea level runs off the Maharashtra-Kerala coasts, accompanied by a cyclonic circulation over central Gujarat in the lower and middle tropospheric levels. Another trough extends from this cyclonic circulation to northwest Bihar in the lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence, the following weather conditions are expected:
- Rainfall Distribution:
- Fairly Widespread to Widespread Rainfall: Light to moderate rainfall, with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (40-50 kmph) are likely over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is expected over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during the next five days.
- Heavy Rainfall Alerts:
- Isolated Heavy Rainfall: Expected over Saurashtra & Kutch, Tamil Nadu (26th-27th); Gujarat Region, Coastal Karnataka (26th-29th); North Interior Karnataka (27th); Telangana (27th & 28th); and Coastal Andhra Pradesh (26th-28th June).
- Isolated Very Heavy Rainfall: Likely over Konkan & Goa during the next five days; Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala & Mahe (26th-27th); and Tamil Nadu (26th June).
- Strong Winds:
- Southerly/southwesterly winds in the lower tropospheric levels from the Bay of Bengal into east & northeast India will influence the following conditions:
- Rainfall: Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during the next five days.
- Heavy Rainfall: Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh (26th-29th June); and isolated heavy rainfall over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura (26th-29th June).
- Southerly/southwesterly winds in the lower tropospheric levels from the Bay of Bengal into east & northeast India will influence the following conditions:
- Other Weather Systems:
- A cyclonic circulation over southwest Madhya Pradesh and a trough from this circulation to northeast Assam will cause:
- Rainfall: Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) over Gangetic West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha during the next five days.
- Heavy Rainfall: Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Bihar (26th June); isolated heavy rainfall over Bihar (27th-29th June); Jharkhand (26th, 28th & 29th June); and Odisha (26th-29th June).
- Uttarakhand and Surrounding Areas: Fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) with isolated heavy rainfall over Uttarakhand, East Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh (26th-29th June); West Uttar Pradesh (27th-29th June); Haryana (28th & 29th June); and Punjab (29th June). Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Uttarakhand (28th & 29th June).
- A cyclonic circulation over southwest Madhya Pradesh and a trough from this circulation to northeast Assam will cause:
Heat Wave Warning
While monsoon rains bring relief to many regions, heat wave conditions persist in isolated pockets of the Jammu division (26th-27th June), Punjab, and West Rajasthan (26th June) before abating.
Yesterday, maximum temperatures ranged between 40-43°C in parts of Punjab, West Rajasthan, and isolated areas of Haryana, south Uttar Pradesh, southwest Bihar, and northwest Jharkhand, which were above normal by 3-6°C.
Source: India Meteorological Department
