The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to make its way through key coordinates and regions, marking the advance of the Southwest Monsoon. Currently, it is passing through 17.0°N/60°E, 17.0°N/65°E, 16.5°N/70°E, Ratnagiri, Solapur, Medak, Bhadrachalam, Vizianagaram, 19.5°N/88°E, 21.5°N/89.5°E, 23°N/89.5°E, and Islampur. Conditions are favorable for the further progression of the monsoon into additional parts of the central Arabian Sea, Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra (including Mumbai), Telangana, south Chhattisgarh, South Odisha, and more regions of Westcentral and Northwest Bay of Bengal over the next 2-3 days.
Weather Systems and Forecast
- Northeast Assam Cyclonic Circulation:
- A cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam, coupled with strong southwesterly/southerly winds from the Bay of Bengal, is likely to result in widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim over the next five days.
- Isolated heavy rainfall is anticipated in Assam & Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim (June 7-11), Arunachal Pradesh (June 8-11), and Nagaland (June 10-11).
- Rayalaseema Cyclonic Circulation and Shear Zone:
- A cyclonic circulation over north Rayalaseema and a shear zone along 16°N in the middle tropospheric levels will likely cause widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (40-50 kmph) across Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Saurashtra & Kutch, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Karnataka over the next five days. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, and Kerala & Mahe are expected to experience similar weather on June 7-8.
- Isolated heavy rainfall is expected in Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra (June 7-11), and Marathwada (June 7-8).
- Very heavy rainfall is likely in Konkan & Goa (June 8-11), Madhya Maharashtra (June 9-11), and Coastal Karnataka (June 9-10).
- Northwest Madhya Pradesh Cyclonic Circulation:
- A cyclonic circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh with a trough extending to West Bengal will cause isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) in Bihar, Jharkhand, and Gangetic West Bengal over the next two days, and in Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh over the next 4-5 days.
- Hailstorms and squally winds (50-60 kmph) are very likely in West Madhya Pradesh on June 7-8.
- Strong winds (25-35 kmph) are anticipated over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands for the next five days, with heavy rainfall expected from June 9-11.
- Western Disturbance Over North Pakistan:
- A cyclonic circulation over north Pakistan and prevailing southwesterly winds from the Arabian Sea will result in scattered to fairly widespread light rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (40-50 kmph) in Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand on June 7.
- Isolated to scattered light rainfall with similar weather phenomena is expected in Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan on June 7, with a dust storm likely over Rajasthan and hailstorms over West Rajasthan.
Heat Wave, Warm Night, and Hot & Humid Weather Warnings
- Maximum temperatures have reached 42-44°C in many parts of Madhya Pradesh, parts of Vidarbha, isolated pockets of Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, and West Uttar Pradesh, with 40-42°C in parts of Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Gujarat.
- Heat wave conditions are expected in isolated pockets of northeast Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand (June 7-11), and in Punjab, Haryana, Bihar, and Odisha (June 8-11).
- Uttar Pradesh may experience severe heat wave conditions from June 8-11.
- Hot and humid weather is likely in isolated pockets of Bihar and Odisha on June 7, and in Gangetic West Bengal from June 7-11.
Stay updated with local weather forecasts and take necessary precautions during these varied weather conditions.
Source: India Meteorological Department
