The monsoon trough is currently active and positioned south of its normal trajectory, expected to remain so for the next 4-5 days. A shear zone in the lower and middle tropospheric levels runs roughly along 20°N, tilting southwards with height. An off-shore trough stretches from south Gujarat to north Kerala at mean sea level. A fresh low-pressure area is predicted to form over the West-central and adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal within the next 24 hours. Additionally, a cyclonic circulation exists over Saurashtra and Kutch in the lower tropospheric levels.
Monsoon: Forecast and Warnings
West, Central, and South Peninsular India
Expect fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning across West and Central India, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, and Karnataka over the next five days. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, and Rayalaseema will experience isolated to scattered rainfall.
- Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall: Vidarbha (18th & 20th), Chhattisgarh (19th & 20th), Telangana (19th-21st), Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Saurashtra & Kutch, Coastal & South Interior Karnataka (next 5 days).
- Extremely Heavy Rainfall: South Interior Karnataka, Saurashtra & Kutch (18th), Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka (18th).
- Heavy Rainfall: East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat Region, Kerala & Mahe, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, North Interior Karnataka (next 5 days), Marathwada (20th).
- Very Heavy Rainfall: Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal (18th), Kerala & Mahe (18th & 19th), Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam (18th-20th), Gujarat Region (18th & 19th).
East and Northeast India
Light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning is expected across Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, and Odisha, with scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Bihar, Jharkhand, and Northeast India in the next five days.
- Heavy Rainfall: Gangetic West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura (19th-21st), Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim (20th & 21st), Jharkhand (21st), Odisha (18th-21st), Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya (20th & 21st).
- Very Heavy Rainfall: Odisha (19th & 20th).
Northwest India
Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning is likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, East Rajasthan, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, with isolated to scattered rainfall over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and West Rajasthan for the next five days.
- Heavy Rainfall: Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, East Rajasthan (next 5 days), Punjab, West Rajasthan (18th), Haryana-Chandigarh (18th & 21st), Uttar Pradesh (20th & 21st).
- Very Heavy Rainfall: Uttarakhand, East Rajasthan (18th).
Residents in the affected regions are advised to stay alert and take necessary precautions to ensure safety during this period of intense monsoon activity.
Source: India Meteorological Department
