The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has identified a near-normal position of the monsoon trough at mean sea level, with a cyclonic circulation over southeast Pakistan. A trough extends from southeast Pakistan to Bangladesh at lower tropospheric levels, significantly influencing weather patterns across India.
Rainfall Predictions for Northwest and Central India
Under the influence of these Monsoon systems, fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning is expected over Northwest and Central India over the next five days. Specifically, isolated heavy rain is likely in Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad on July 6th, Himachal Pradesh on July 6th and 7th, Uttarakhand on July 8th, Punjab on July 6th and 7th, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi from July 5th to 6th, Uttar Pradesh from July 5th to 9th, East Rajasthan on July 5th and 6th, West Madhya Pradesh on July 5th, East Madhya Pradesh on July 5th, and Chhattisgarh on July 7th and 8th.
Monsoon: Heavy Rainfall Expected in East and Northeast India
Another cyclonic circulation over northeast Rajasthan, coupled with a trough extending to Bangladesh, is expected to bring widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall over East and Northeast India. Isolated heavy rainfall is anticipated over Andaman & Nicobar Islands on July 5th, Jharkhand on July 5th, Odisha on July 6th, 8th, and 9th, Bihar from July 6th to 9th, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura on July 7th, 8th, and 9th, and Assam & Meghalaya on July 8th and 9th.
Monsoon: South and West India Rainfall Forecast
A cyclonic circulation over south Gujarat and an off-shore trough running along the south Gujarat-Karnataka coasts are expected to cause widespread rainfall in South and West India. Light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning is likely over Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, Coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa, and Gujarat State over the next five days. Additionally, isolated heavy rainfall is forecasted for Konkan & Goa, Telangana on July 7th, 8th, and 9th, the Gujarat region on July 5th, Kerala & Mahe from July 5th to 9th, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Coastal Karnataka on July 8th and 9th, and South Interior Karnataka on July 5th, 8th, and 9th.
These forecasts underscore the need for preparedness to mitigate the impacts of heavy rainfall and potential flooding in the affected regions.
Source: India Meteorological Department
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