The Southwest Monsoon has further withdrawn from significant areas of India, marking the end of the rainy season for many regions. The monsoon has retreated from Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Sikkim, as well as parts of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Assam, and Meghalaya. Additionally, the monsoon has withdrawn from the northwest Bay of Bengal.
The current line of monsoon withdrawal passes through locations like Dhubri, Tura, Gopalpur, Raipur, Khargone, Nandurbar, and Navsari. Conditions remain favorable for further withdrawal from the remaining parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Maharashtra over the next two days. By then, the Southwest Monsoon is expected to withdraw from the entire country.
Monsoon Withdrawal: Transition to Northeast Monsoon
Simultaneously, with the arrival of easterly and northeasterly winds over southern peninsular India, the Northeast Monsoon is likely to begin in the southeastern regions. This includes Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and parts of Andhra Pradesh, where rainfall activity is expected to intensify.
Monsoon Withdrawal: Weather Systems in Place
Several weather systems are currently influencing the conditions:
- A depression has formed over the central Arabian Sea, and it will likely move toward the Oman coast over the next two days.
- An upper-air cyclonic circulation is present over Tamil Nadu, and a low-pressure area is expected to form over the south Bay of Bengal, possibly intensifying as it moves toward Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
- Cyclonic circulations also persist over Assam and nearby regions.
Monsoon Withdrawal: Forecast and Warnings
For South Peninsular India, fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, and Karnataka. Isolated heavy to hefty rainfall is forecast for Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema on October 16, with the possibility of extremely heavy rain in some areas.
In West and Central India, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Konkan regions may experience scattered rainfall in the coming days, with isolated heavy rain expected in Madhya Maharashtra and West Madhya Pradesh.
For Northwest, Northeast, and East India, no significant rainfall is anticipated in the coming week, as the monsoon retreats.
Monsoon Withdrawal: Conclusion
As the Southwest Monsoon withdraws and the Northeast Monsoon prepares to set in, the weather across India is entering a transitional phase. Stay updated with local forecasts for more detailed information on rainfall and warnings in your area.
Source: India Meteorological Department
