The withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon is progressing, with the withdrawal line passing through coordinates 29°N/84°E, Nautanwa, Sultanpur, Panna, Narmadapuram, Khargone, Nandurbar, Navsari, and 20°N/70°E. Conditions are favorable for the monsoon to further withdraw from the remaining parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and some regions of Maharashtra and Bihar over the next 2-3 days.
Monsoon Systems
- A low-pressure area has developed over the east-central and adjoining Lakshadweep and the southeast Arabian Sea. It is anticipated to move northwest and intensify into a depression over the central Arabian Sea in the coming 3-4 days.
- A trough extends from the Comorin area to the north Konkan coast, linked to the cyclonic circulation associated with the low-pressure area over the Arabian Sea.
- A cyclonic circulation is also observed over east Assam and its surroundings at lower tropospheric levels.
- Another cyclonic circulation exists over Sri Lanka and its vicinity in the lower and middle tropospheric levels.
Forecast & Warnings (up to 7 days): Monsoon
South Peninsular India:
- Widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected over Lakshadweep, Kerala & Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, and coastal and South Interior Karnataka.
- Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely in Tamil Nadu from October 12–14 and in Kerala & Mahe on October 12 and 13.
- Isolated heavy rainfall is also expected over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal during the week, as well as over Lakshadweep and Coastal Karnataka on specific dates.
Northeast India:
- Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall is predicted in Northeast India over the next five days, with isolated heavy rainfall expected in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya on October 10 and 11.
West India:
- Light to moderate rainfall is anticipated in Konkan & Goa throughout the week, with isolated heavy rainfall likely in these regions and Madhya Maharashtra from October 10 to 12.
Northwest, East & Central India:
- No significant rainfall is expected in these regions over the next week.
As the Southwest Monsoon continues its retreat, residents in the affected areas must stay updated on weather forecasts and be prepared for varying conditions.
Source: India Meteorological Department
