As we navigate through mid-May, the Indian subcontinent finds itself under the influence of various weather systems, each playing a pivotal role in shaping local weather conditions. From western disturbances to cyclonic circulations, these atmospheric phenomena dictate the patterns of rainfall, thunderstorms, and even heatwaves across different regions. Let’s delve into the forecast and warnings for the upcoming days.
Western Disturbance and Cyclonic Circulations
A western disturbance, manifested as a trough in the middle tropospheric westerlies, extends along longitudes 73°E, north of latitude 32°N. This disturbance triggers isolated rainfall activity over Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand on May 13th and 14th, 2024. Additionally, cyclonic circulations over West Uttar Pradesh and south Rajasthan lead to dust storms, thunderstorms, and gusty winds over Rajasthan and parts of Uttar Pradesh.
North-South Trough and Cyclonic Circulations
Another significant weather pattern involves a north-south trough and cyclonic circulations over South Interior Karnataka and West Uttar Pradesh to south Assam. This setup brings scattered to widespread rainfall across Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, accompanied by thunderstorms and squally winds. Hailstorm activity is anticipated in certain regions, while isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, and Odisha.
Cyclonic Circulations over Northeast Assam
In the northeast, cyclonic circulations influence weather conditions over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura. Scattered to widespread rainfall, thunderstorms, and squally winds are forecasted, with the potential for isolated heavy rainfall over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya.
Maximum Temperature Observations and Heatwave Warnings
Several regions experienced maximum temperatures exceeding 40°C, including parts of West Rajasthan, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Gujarat. Heatwave conditions are anticipated over West Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, and South Haryana on May 16th, 2024. Furthermore, hot and humid weather is expected to persist over Saurashtra & Kutch in the coming days.
Source: India Meteorological Department
