As we approach mid-May, significant weather events are expected across various regions in India. The Southwest Monsoon is poised to make its advance, bringing a mix of rainfall and thunderstorms. Additionally, cyclonic circulations and heat waves are influencing weather patterns in multiple states. Here’s a detailed forecast and warning summary for the upcoming days.
Monsoon Advance
The Southwest Monsoon is anticipated to progress into the South Andaman Sea, parts of the Southeast Bay of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands around May 19, 2024. This marks the beginning of the monsoon season, promising much-needed relief from the summer heat in these regions.
Cyclonic Circulations and Troughs
- South Tamil Nadu & Rayalaseema: Cyclonic circulations are active over south Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema, extending to north Tamil Nadu in the lower and middle tropospheric levels. A trough extends from south Chhattisgarh to the Comorin area.
- Impact: These systems are expected to cause widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (40-50 kmph) over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, and south Karnataka. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Rayalaseema will experience isolated to scattered rainfall with thunderstorms (30-40 kmph).
Rainfall Predictions
- Heavy Rainfall: Isolated heavy rainfall is forecasted for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, and Coastal & South Interior Karnataka from May 18 to 22. Lakshadweep will also see heavy rains from May 20 to 22.
- Very Heavy Rainfall: Expect very heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal during May 18-22; Kerala and Mahe on May 18-19; and South Interior Karnataka from May 20-22.
- Extremely Heavy Rainfall: Kerala is likely to experience extremely heavy rainfall from May 20-22, and Coastal Karnataka on May 22.
Regional Forecasts
- Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada: Light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) on May 18-19.
- Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh: Similar weather conditions on May 18.
- Andaman & Nicobar Islands: Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall over the next seven days, with isolated heavy rainfall over Nicobar Islands from May 20-22.
- Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal: Light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) over the next seven days, particularly from May 19-22.
Cyclonic Activity in Northeast India
- Northeast Assam & Neighborhood: A cyclonic circulation will bring scattered to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and gusty winds (40-50 kmph) over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, and fairly widespread rainfall over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura.
- Heavy Rainfall: Sikkim on May 19-20, Arunachal Pradesh on May 18-19, Assam and Meghalaya from May 18-20, and Nagaland, Manipur on May 19. Meghalaya is also likely to see very heavy rainfall on May 19-20.
Western Disturbance
- Western Himalayas: A Western Disturbance will cause isolated to scattered light rainfall over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand on May 18-19.
Temperature and Heat Wave Warnings
- High Temperatures: Maximum temperatures exceeded 42°C in many regions, particularly Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh, Punjab, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and isolated pockets of East Uttar Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh.
- Heat Wave Conditions: Severe heat wave conditions are expected in parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi from May 18-22. Heat waves are also likely in Uttar Pradesh, North Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Odisha.
- Hot and Humid Weather: Konkan & Goa, Jharkhand, Assam, Tripura, and Odisha will experience hot and humid conditions, with warm nights expected in Uttar Pradesh on May 18.
This comprehensive forecast helps in planning and preparing for the varied weather conditions across India. Stay safe and take necessary precautions, especially in regions expecting heavy rainfall or heat waves.
Source: India Meteorological Department
