The Southwest Monsoon is set to make its advance into the South Andaman Sea, parts of the Southeast Bay of Bengal, and the Nicobar Islands around May 19, 2024. This progression marks the beginning of the monsoon season, which brings crucial rainfall to the Indian subcontinent.
Cyclonic Circulation Over Comorin Area
A cyclonic circulation over the Comorin area and adjacent South Tamil Nadu coast, along with a trough extending to Lakshadweep, is expected to influence weather conditions. The forecast predicts:
- Rainfall and Thunderstorms: Light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (40-50 kmph) over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, and South Karnataka. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Telangana, and Rayalaseema will experience similar weather with slightly lower wind speeds (30-40 kmph) over the next seven days.
- Heavy Rainfall: Isolated heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, and South Interior Karnataka between May 16-20. Coastal Karnataka will see heavy rainfall from May 17-19, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema, and Lakshadweep are also expected to experience heavy showers.
- Very Heavy Rainfall: Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal will witness very heavy rainfall from May 17-19, Kerala and Mahe on May 18-19, and South Interior Karnataka from May 18-20.
- Extremely Heavy Rainfall: Tamil Nadu on May 16 and 20, and Kerala on May 20 are likely to experience extremely heavy rainfall.
- Light Rainfall with Thunderstorms: Expected over Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada from May 16-18, and over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Gujarat on May 16.
- Andaman & Nicobar Islands: Scattered to widespread light to moderate rainfall over the next seven days, with isolated heavy rainfall over Nicobar Islands on May 20.
- Eastern India: Isolated light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms over Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Gangetic West Bengal during May 19-22, with heavy rainfall over Odisha on May 16.
Cyclonic Circulation Over Northeast Assam
A cyclonic circulation over Northeast Assam will bring:
- Rainfall and Thunderstorms: Scattered to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim for the next seven days. Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura will experience similar conditions.
- Heavy Rainfall: Isolated heavy rainfall over Sikkim on May 16, 19, and 20; Arunachal Pradesh from May 16-19; and Assam and Meghalaya from May 17-20.
Western Disturbance Impact
A fresh Western Disturbance is expected to affect the Western Himalayan region from May 17, bringing isolated to scattered light rainfall over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand from May 17-19.
Heat Wave and Temperature Observations
Maximum temperatures across several regions are notably high, with areas recording temperatures above 43°C. This includes Rajasthan, South Haryana, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh, with temperatures 2-4°C above normal.
- Heat Wave Conditions: Expected in isolated areas of West Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana from May 16-20; East Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh from May 17-20; North Madhya Pradesh from May 18-20. Severe heat wave conditions are also anticipated in West Rajasthan from May 17-20, and Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi from May 18-20.
- Isolated Heat Wave Conditions: Expected in Gujarat from May 16-18, Konkan on May 16, Bihar from May 16-19, Jharkhand from May 18-20, Gangetic West Bengal on May 18-19, and Odisha on May 19-20.
- Hot and Humid Weather: Likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal on May 16-17, and Assam, Meghalaya, and Tripura on May 16.
Stay updated with the latest weather reports and take necessary precautions during severe weather conditions.
Source: India Meteorological Department
