As the planet undergoes ever-changing weather dynamics, understanding and staying ahead of weather events becomes increasingly important for individuals and communities alike. Over the next five days, a confluence of atmospheric systems is set to impact different regions, shaping the weather landscape. Prominent among these are the cyclonic circulation over the south-west Bay of Bengal and adjacent south Sri Lanka, which is active within the lower and middle tropospheric levels.
Cyclonic Circulation over Southwest BOB and Adjoining South Sri Lanka:
A significant weather feature, the Cyclonic Circulation over Southwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining south Sri Lanka in lower & middle tropospheric levels, is expected to influence the weather patterns in the coming days. This circulation will contribute to scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall/snowfall over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh on 30th November. Heavy rainfall/snowfall at isolated places is also likely over Kashmir-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad on the same day.
Western Disturbance and Induced Cyclonic Circulation:
The Western Disturbance, running as a trough in middle tropospheric levels, extends between Lat. 37°N/Long. 65°E & Lat. 30°N/Long. 75°E. This, combined with an induced cyclonic circulation over northwest Rajasthan in lower tropospheric levels, will result in light rainfall at isolated places over the plains of Northwest India during the next 48 hours. Thunderstorm & lightning are expected at isolated places over entire Northwest India except Rajasthan on 30th November, with isolated hailstorm likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana-Chandigarh.
Confluence of Winds:
Confluence between easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal and winds associated with the induced cyclonic circulation over northwest Rajasthan at lower tropospheric levels will further contribute to the weather dynamics.
Forecast Highlights:
- Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms & lightning during the next 48 hours and isolated hailstorms during the next 24 hours are very likely over Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha.
- Light isolated rainfall with thunderstorm activity is expected over Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada on 30th November & 01st December.
- Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, and Kerala & Mahe are likely to experience light to moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorm activity at isolated places during the next 5 days. Isolated heavy rainfall is expected over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe on 30th November & 01st December and over Rayalaseema on 30th November. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is also very likely over coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal on 30th November.
Low Pressure Area over Southeast Bay of Bengal:
A Well Marked Low Pressure Area persists over Southeast Bay of Bengal, likely to intensify into a Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal during the next 12 hours. This system is expected to gradually intensify into a Cyclonic Storm over Southwest Bay of Bengal around 03rd December, moving northwestwards and reaching near North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh (SAP) coasts around the early morning of 04th December.
Warnings: Rainfall Warning:
- Light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands on 30th November & 1st December.
- North Coastal Tamil Nadu & Puducherry may experience light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall during 1st to 4th December, with isolated very heavy rainfall during 2nd to 4th December.
- South Coastal Andhra Pradesh is expected to receive light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy to weighty rainfall from the 3rd to 4th December.
- Rayalaseema may experience light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall on the 3rd & 4th of December.
Fishermen Warning:
- South Andaman Sea on 30th November.
- Avoid venturing into the Southeast Bay of Bengal from November 30th to December 2nd.
- Avoid venturing into the Southwest Bay of Bengal from the 1st to the 4th of December.
- Westcentral Bay of Bengal from 2nd December morning to 5th December.
Those at sea are advised to return to Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 1st December, while those off the east coast of India (from Tamil Nadu coast to Odisha coast) should return to the coast by the same date. Stay tuned for further updates and stay weather-wise!
Source: India Meteorological Department
