Weather: The deep depression over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining northeast Rajasthan has made significant movements. Over the past six hours, it shifted west-northwestwards at a speed of 23 kmph, weakening into a depression. By 0530 hours IST on August 5th, it was centered over northeast Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh, near latitude 26.3°N and longitude 76.2°E. This location is approximately 180 km northwest of Shivpuri (Madhya Pradesh), 40 km north-northwest of Sawai Madhopur (Rajasthan), and 70 km southeast of Jaipur (Rajasthan). The system is expected to continue moving west-northwestwards across northeast Rajasthan and further weaken into a well-marked low-pressure area within 24 hours.
Monsoon Trough and Off-shore Trough Activity
The monsoon trough is presently active and situated south of its usual position at mean sea level. Additionally, an off-shore trough at mean sea level extends from South Gujarat to the north Kerala coast. These systems play a crucial role in the distribution and intensity of rainfall across various regions of India, significantly impacting weather patterns.
Weather Forecast and Warnings for Northwest India
In the coming week, northwest India is expected to experience fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning. Regions such as Jammu-Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Rajasthan will likely see significant rain, with scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Uttar Pradesh and isolated to scattered rainfall over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Delhi. Isolated very heavy rain is anticipated over West Rajasthan on August 5th and 6th, and in Uttarakhand on August 6th and 7th. Additional warnings include isolated heavy rainfall in Jammu-Kashmir from August 5th-7th, Himachal Pradesh from August 5th-10th, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi on August 7th and 8th, Uttarakhand from August 5th and 8th-10th, West Uttar Pradesh from August 6th-10th, East Uttar Pradesh from August 5th-10th, West Rajasthan on August 9th and 10th, and East Rajasthan on August 5th and 7th-10th.
Weather: Regional Forecasts for West, Central, East, and Northeast India
For West and Central India, fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, is expected over the Konkan & Goa and Gujarat regions throughout the week. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is predicted over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, and Saurashtra & Kutch. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places in the Gujarat region and Madhya Maharashtra on August 5th. Isolated heavy rainfall is anticipated over West Madhya Pradesh from August 5th-10th, East Madhya Pradesh on August 5th, 7th, 9th, and 10th, the Gujarat region from August 6th-10th, Konkan & Goa on August 5th, 6th, and 8th-10th, Madhya Maharashtra on August 6th and 8th-10th, and Chhattisgarh from August 6th-10th.
In East and Northeast India, fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, is expected throughout the week. Very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh from August 7th-9th, Assam & Meghalaya on August 5th, 6th, and 9th, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura on August 5th, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on August 5th and 6th. Isolated heavy rainfall is anticipated in Arunachal Pradesh from August 5th-6th and 10th, Assam & Meghalaya on August 7th, 8th, and 10th, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura from August 6th-10th, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on August 7th and 8th, and Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, and Jharkhand on August 6th and 7th.
Weather: Rainfall Outlook for South Peninsular India
In South Peninsular India, fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected over Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, and Coastal Karnataka. Isolated to scattered rainfall is predicted for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, interior Karnataka, and Rayalaseema over the next five days. Heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over Kerala & Mahe and Tamil Nadu on August 5th, and Coastal Karnataka from August 5th-6th.
The current weather systems and their expected movements indicate a period of significant rainfall across various regions of India. Residents and authorities need to remain vigilant and prepared for the associated impacts, particularly in areas forecasted to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall.
Source: India Meteorological Department
