As the seasons transition and atmospheric conditions evolve, staying ahead of the weather becomes increasingly vital. Understanding the complex interplay of weather systems and forecasts can help individuals and communities prepare for potential challenges and mitigate risks. Here’s a detailed overview of the current weather patterns, forecasted disturbances, and warnings across different regions of India.
Intense Western Disturbance and Associated Weather Patterns
An intense Western Disturbance, characterized by a cyclonic circulation over west Afghanistan and adjoining Iran, coupled with an embedded trough in the middle and upper tropospheric westerlies, is currently influencing weather patterns. This disturbance extends roughly along Long. 60°E to the north of Lat. 27°N. Additionally, two cyclonic circulations are present over central parts of Rajasthan, while another lies over West Uttar Pradesh. A trough extends from the circulation over West Uttar Pradesh to Gangetic West Bengal in lower tropospheric levels. High moisture feeding from the Arabian Sea is expected to impact Northwest India on April 15th.
Forecasted Weather Events
Under the influence of these weather systems, a range of weather events is anticipated across different regions:
- Fairly widespread widespread light to moderate rainfall/snowfall, accompanied by isolated thunderstorms and lightning, is predicted over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya from April 16th to 20th, 2024.
- Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall, along with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph), is likely over West Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh on April 15th, 2024.
- Isolated hailstorms are anticipated over Jammu Division, Himachal Pradesh, & Uttarakhand on April 15th, 2024.
- Isolated heavy rainfall/snowfall is very likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh on April 15th, 2024.
- Strong surface winds (30-40 kmph) are expected to prevail over Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi and Uttar Pradesh on April 16th and 17th, 2024.
Shift in Weather Patterns
As the intense Western Disturbance moves away from Northwest India towards Northeast India and receives fresh moisture feeding from the Bay of Bengal, a shift in weather patterns is expected. During April 16th-20th, 2024, the following weather events are anticipated:
- Fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall/snowfall, with isolated thunderstorms and lightning, is expected over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya.
- Isolated heavy rainfall is anticipated over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam on April 16th and 17th, 2024.
Maximum Temperature Observations and Heat Wave Warnings
Yesterday, maximum temperatures were observed to be in the range of 40-42°C at a few places over Telangana and Rayalaseema, and at isolated places over West Bengal, Jharkhand, Saurashtra & Kutch, Madhya Maharashtra, and Odisha. These temperatures are below normal by 2-4°C at many parts of Northwest and Central India and normal over the rest of the plains of the country.
Looking ahead, heat waves and hot & humid weather warnings have been issued for the next five days:
- Hot and humid weather is very likely to prevail over coastal Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, and Gangetic West Bengal during the next five days, with Heat Wave conditions in isolated pockets of these areas during April 15th-19th, 2024.
- Hot and humid weather is expected over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Konkan & Goa, and Rayalaseema during April 15th-19th, and over Kerala & Mahe during April 15th-17th, 2024.
Stay tuned to local weather updates and advisories to stay safe and prepared amidst these varied weather conditions.
Source: India Meteorological Department
