Weather systems are intricate phenomena that govern the atmospheric conditions we experience daily. In India, various weather systems significantly influence the weather patterns, especially during the monsoon season. This article delves into the key weather systems affecting India currently and their forecasted impacts.
Weather: Low-pressure areas and Cyclonic Circulations
A low-pressure area is currently located southeast of Madhya Pradesh, with an associated cyclonic circulation extending up to the middle tropospheric levels, tilting southwestwards with height. Such systems typically bring increased cloud cover, precipitation, and sometimes thunderstorms. The formation of a fresh low-pressure area over the West-central and adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal around 19th July is also anticipated, which could lead to enhanced rainfall activities in the surrounding regions.
Monsoon Trough and Shear Zones
The monsoon trough is an extended low-pressure zone that is currently active and situated south of its normal position. It is expected to remain south of its normal position for the next 4-5 days. Additionally, a shear zone runs along the lower and middle tropospheric levels roughly along 19°N, tilting southwards with height. These features play crucial roles in the distribution and intensity of monsoon rains across the Indian subcontinent, often leading to widespread rainfall in the affected areas.
Off-Shore Troughs and Coastal Weather Patterns
An off-shore trough runs along the South Gujarat-North Kerala coasts at mean sea level. This system typically brings significant rainfall to the coastal regions, influencing weather patterns over the Arabian Sea and adjacent land areas. Such troughs are vital for maintaining the monsoon momentum along the western coast of India, leading to frequent and intense rainfall events.
Rainfall Forecast and Warnings
West, Central, and South Peninsular India
The regions are expected to experience fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning over the next five days. Notably, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat State, Karnataka, and Kerala & Mahe are likely to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall, with isolated extremely heavy rainfall predicted for Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra.
East and Northeast India
Similar conditions are forecasted for East and Northeast India, with widespread light to moderate rainfall and thunderstorms. Odisha, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, and Assam & Meghalaya are expected to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall during this period.
Northwest India
Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, is likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and East Rajasthan. Isolated heavy rainfall is expected in these areas, with very heavy rainfall likely over Uttarakhand and East Rajasthan.
Weather systems such as low-pressure areas, cyclonic circulations, monsoon troughs, and shear zones significantly influence India’s weather, especially during the monsoon season. Understanding these systems and their impacts can help in better preparedness and mitigation of adverse weather conditions.
Source: India Meteorological Department
