The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) currently extends through coordinates 05°N/75°E, 06°N/80°E, 07°N/85°E, passing through Nancowry and reaching 10°N/100°E. Conditions are favorable for the further advance of the Southwest Monsoon over various regions in the next two days. These regions include parts of the Southeast Arabian Sea, more areas in the Maldives, the Comorin area, the South Bay of Bengal, and parts of the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Andaman Sea.
Monsoon Advancements
The Southwest Monsoon is set to advance over several regions, including parts of the Southeast Arabian Sea, the Maldives, the Comorin area, the South Bay of Bengal, the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, and the Andaman Sea over the next two days. This progression marks a significant shift in weather patterns, bringing the much-anticipated monsoon rains.
Cyclonic Circulations and Their Impact
Two notable cyclonic circulations are currently influencing weather conditions:
- North Kerala: This circulation in the lower and middle tropospheric levels will cause widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, Coastal Karnataka, and South Interior Karnataka. Similar conditions are expected in Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka, and Rayalaseema over the next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely in these areas on specific dates, notably on May 22nd and 23rd.
- North Coastal Andhra Pradesh: This circulation in the lower tropospheric levels will contribute to scattered to widespread light to moderate rainfall, thunderstorms, and gusty winds over regions including Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha, and Madhya Pradesh on May 22nd, and Chhattisgarh from May 22nd to 26th.
Rainfall Predictions
Significant rainfall is expected across various regions:
- Kerala and Mahe: Extremely heavy rainfall on May 22nd and 23rd.
- Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal: Heavy to very heavy rainfall on May 22nd and 23rd.
- Andaman and Nicobar Islands: Widespread light to moderate rainfall over the next 7 days, with isolated rainfall from May 22nd to 25th.
Formation of Low-Pressure Area
A low-pressure area is anticipated to form over the Southwest Bay of Bengal around May 22nd, likely to develop into a depression by May 24th. This system is expected to bring heavy rainfall to North & South 24 Parganas, East Medinipur districts of West Bengal, Balasore district of Odisha, Mizoram, Tripura, and South Manipur on May 25th. Fishermen are advised to avoid venturing into the central and adjoining south Bay of Bengal from May 23rd and the North Bay of Bengal from May 24th onwards.
Temperature Extremes and Heat Wave Warnings
Several areas are experiencing maximum temperatures above 40°C, with severe heat wave conditions likely in parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Rajasthan, and East Rajasthan from May 21st to 26th. Heat wave conditions are also expected in isolated pockets of Jammu division, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat state, Vidarbha, northeast Madhya Pradesh, and north Madhya Maharashtra during specific periods. Additionally, hot and humid weather is anticipated in Assam, Konkan & Goa, and Odisha on May 22nd. Warm night conditions are predicted for West Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan during this period.
Source: India Meteorological Department
