Weather: The current weather systems indicate significant monsoon activity across India, driven by several cyclonic circulations and troughs at various atmospheric levels. The monsoon trough is near its normal position at mean sea level, accompanied by a cyclonic circulation over southwest Uttar Pradesh up to mid-tropospheric levels. Another cyclonic circulation exists over West Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan, with a trough extending from West Rajasthan to Manipur in the lower tropospheric levels.
As a result, Northwest and Central India can expect fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning over the next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall is anticipated over Himachal Pradesh and Haryana-Chandigarh on July 6th; Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, and East Madhya Pradesh from July 6th to 9th; Punjab and West Madhya Pradesh on July 7th; Vidarbha on July 8th and 9th; and Chhattisgarh from July 7th to 9th. Additionally, isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Uttarakhand and East Uttar Pradesh on July 6th and 7th; Punjab, West Uttar Pradesh, and West Madhya Pradesh on July 6th.
East and Northeast India are also expected to experience fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning over the next five days. Isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over West Bengal and Sikkim, Bihar from July 7th to 9th; Jharkhand on July 7th; Odisha on July 6th and 8th; and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura from July 6th to 9th. Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over West Bengal and Sikkim on July 6th; Bihar on July 6th; Odisha on July 7th; and Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya from July 6th to 9th.
Additionally, a cyclonic circulation lies over south Gujarat in the lower tropospheric levels, with an offshore trough at mean sea level running along the south Gujarat-Kerala coasts. This will influence fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning over Kerala and Mahe, Lakshadweep, Coastal Karnataka, Konkan and Goa, and Gujarat State. Scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, and Interior Karnataka. Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall is predicted over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Rayalaseema, and Telangana over the next five days.
Isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over the Gujarat Region on July 6th; Kerala and Mahe from July 6th to 8th; Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam from July 6th to 8th; Telangana on July 8th and 9th; Coastal and South Interior Karnataka from July 7th to 9th; and North Interior Karnataka on July 8th. Furthermore, isolated very heavy rainfall is expected over Konkan and Goa, and Coastal Karnataka on July 6th; Madhya Maharashtra on July 6th and 7th; and South Interior Karnataka on July 6th. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is also very likely over Coastal Karnataka on July 6th.
Source: India Meteorological Department
