Weather: As we move through late May 2024, the weather systems across India and neighboring regions are set for significant changes. Here’s a detailed look at the latest updates and warnings:
Northern Limit of Monsoon
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through coordinates 05°N/60°E, 06°N/70°E, 07°N/75°E, 08°N/80°E, 13°N/84.5°E, 16°N/87.5°E, 18.5°N/90°E, and 21°N/92.5°E. Conditions are becoming favorable for the onset of the monsoon over Kerala within the next five days.
Monsoon Advancements
The Southwest Monsoon is likely to advance further into additional parts of the South Arabian Sea, remaining parts of the Maldives and Comorin area, parts of the Lakshadweep area, Kerala, and some parts of the Southwest and Central Bay of Bengal, Northeast Bay of Bengal, and parts of the Northeastern states during the same period.
Rainfall and Storms Forecast
From May 28th to June 1st, we can expect fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) over Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Sikkim. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Kerala & Mahe from May 28th-31st, Lakshadweep on May 29th, and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands from May 28th to June 1st.
Isolated to scattered light rainfall, with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph), is expected over Uttarakhand from May 28th to June 1st, and over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, and Himachal Pradesh on May 30th and 31st. Additionally, strong surface winds (25-35 kmph) are forecast over Gujarat State on May 28th.
Depression and Heavy Rainfall Warning
The Deep Depression, a remnant of Cyclonic Storm “Remal,” has weakened into a Depression over East Bangladesh and is likely to further weaken into a Well Marked Low Pressure Area within the next 12 hours.
Light to moderate rainfall is expected in most places across the Northeastern states, with heavy to very heavy rainfall in certain areas like Assam, Meghalaya (on May 29th, 30th, and June 1st), and Arunachal Pradesh (on May 28th, 29th, and June 1st). Isolated extremely heavy rainfall (≥ 20 cm) is also likely over South Assam & Meghalaya, and Tripura on May 28th. Heavy rainfall at isolated places is forecast over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura from May 29th to June 1st.
Temperature Observations and Heat Wave Warnings
Maximum temperatures have reached above 40°C in several regions, with some parts of West Rajasthan experiencing temperatures as high as 47-49°C. These temperatures are 4-6°C above normal in many regions, including parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh.
Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions are very likely in many parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, and isolated parts of West Uttar Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh on May 28th and 29th, with a gradual reduction thereafter. Isolated pockets of Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Jammu division are also likely to experience heat wave conditions.
Hot and humid weather is expected to prevail over parts of Gujarat from May 28th-31st and Bihar on May 28th. Warm night conditions are likely in isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh on May 28th.
Stay informed and take necessary precautions based on these forecasts and warnings.
Source: India Meteorological Department
