Weather: The monsoon trough is currently active and positioned south of its normal location at mean sea level. This trough is anticipated to gradually shift northwards over the next three to four days. Additionally, a significant weather feature known as the shear zone is observed around the 20°N latitude over the Indian region, extending from 3.1 to 7.6 kilometers above mean sea level and tilting southwards with height. This configuration is critical in influencing the rainfall patterns and weather systems across the country.
Off-Shore Trough and Cyclonic Circulation
An off-shore trough at mean sea level is present, extending from South Gujarat to the Kerala coasts. This feature plays a crucial role in driving moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea towards the western coast of India, thereby enhancing rainfall activity in the region. Concurrently, a cyclonic circulation is identified over the northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of Saurashtra in the lower tropospheric levels. This system is expected to contribute to significant weather phenomena, including increased rainfall and thunderstorms in the affected areas.
Regional Rainfall Forecasts and Weather Warnings
South Peninsular India
The southern peninsula is poised to experience fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall over the next five days. Regions such as Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, and Coastal Karnataka are likely to see consistent rainfall, with thunderstorms and lightning in Interior Karnataka and isolated to scattered showers in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and surrounding areas. Notably, isolated extremely heavy rainfall is expected in Kerala and Mahe on 30th July, with very heavy rainfall likely in Coastal and South Interior Karnataka and Kerala on subsequent days.
West & Central India
West and Central India will also witness fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning over the next five days. Isolated very heavy rainfall is anticipated in regions like Saurashtra, Kutch, Konkan, Goa, East Madhya Pradesh, and Ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh. These areas are expected to experience the heaviest rainfall between 30th July and 2nd August, posing potential risks of flooding and waterlogging.
Northwest India
The northwestern parts of India, including Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and East Rajasthan, are likely to experience fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning over the next five days. Isolated very heavy rainfall is predicted for Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu-Kashmir, Ladakh, Haryana, Chandigarh, West Uttar Pradesh, and West Rajasthan during this period. These regions should prepare for potential disruptions due to heavy downpours.
East & Northeast India
East and Northeast India are expected to have fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning over the next five days. Very heavy rain is forecasted for isolated places in Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, and Odisha. These areas must be vigilant for potential flash floods and landslides due to the intense rainfall activity.
In summary, various weather systems, including the monsoon trough, shear zone, off-shore trough, and cyclonic circulation, are actively influencing the weather across different regions of India. The forecasts and warnings indicate significant rainfall events that require preparedness and caution to mitigate potential adverse impacts.
Source: India Meteorological Department
