As of August 13th, a complex array of weather systems is influencing various parts of India, leading to diverse weather patterns across the country. A significant cyclonic circulation is currently positioned over northwest Madhya Pradesh and its surrounding areas, extending up to the middle tropospheric levels. This system is connected by a trough running from the cyclonic circulation to Bangladesh at lower tropospheric levels. Another cyclonic circulation is located over southeast Pakistan and adjacent areas of Rajasthan at lower tropospheric levels, contributing to the regional weather dynamics. Additionally, the monsoon trough is near its normal position at mean sea level and is expected to oscillate close to this position throughout the week.
Impact on Northwest and Central India
The weather systems in place are expected to bring varied rainfall to different parts of India. In Northwest India, regions such as the Western Himalayan Region and the plains are likely to experience fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall throughout the week. Isolated heavy rainfall is predicted over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, and West Rajasthan from August 13th to 18th, with similar conditions in East Rajasthan and Haryana from August 13th to 16th. Particularly, Uttarakhand and East Rajasthan might see isolated very heavy rainfall on August 13th. Meanwhile, West and Central India will likely witness scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall, with isolated heavy rainfall over West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and East Madhya Pradesh on specific days.
Weather Patterns in East, Northeast, and South Peninsular India
East and Northeast India are forecasted to experience fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall during the week. Heavy rainfall is anticipated in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha, and Bihar. Arunachal Pradesh is particularly expected to see very heavy rainfall on August 14th. In the South Peninsular region, similar widespread light to moderate rainfall is likely, with isolated heavy rainfall expected in Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe, and Lakshadweep during the period. Some areas, particularly Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, and Mahe, might experience very heavy rainfall on August 13th and 14th.
Forecast Summary and Warnings
The upcoming week presents a significant variation in rainfall distribution across India due to the influence of multiple cyclonic circulations and troughs. These systems are expected to produce widespread light to moderate rainfall in several regions, with isolated instances of heavy to very heavy rainfall. The weather conditions warrant close monitoring, especially in regions prone to heavy rainfall, as they may lead to localized flooding or other disruptions. Authorities and residents are advised to stay updated on weather warnings and take necessary precautions during this period.
Source: India Meteorological Department
