Yesterday, the Southwest Monsoon progressed into parts of the Maldives, the Comorin area, the South Bay of Bengal, the Nicobar Islands, and the South Andaman Sea. The Northern Limit of Monsoon currently passes through 5°N/75°E, 6°N/80°E, 7°N/85°E, Nancowry, and 10°N/100°E.
Cyclonic Circulations and Associated Weather Patterns
South Interior Tamil Nadu:
A cyclonic circulation persists over south interior Tamil Nadu and its neighboring regions at low and mid-tropospheric levels. A trough extends from west Vidarbha to south Tamil Nadu in the lower tropospheric levels. Under these influences, expect:
- Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep, Karnataka, and scattered light/moderate rainfall over Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
- Isolated heavy rainfall over Coastal Karnataka on May 23rd and 24th, South Interior Karnataka on May 22nd and 23rd, and Lakshadweep from May 20th to 22nd.
- Very heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe on May 23rd, Coastal Karnataka from May 20th to 22nd, and South Interior Karnataka on May 20th, 21st, and 24th.
- Extremely heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu and Kerala from May 20th to 22nd.
- Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands over the next seven days, with isolated heavy rainfall over the Nicobar Islands from May 20th to 24th.
- Isolated light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds over Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada from May 20th to 22nd, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh from May 20th to 23rd, and East Madhya Pradesh on May 20th.
- Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds over Odisha, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, and Jharkhand from May 20th to 24th.
Northeast Assam:
A cyclonic circulation is observed over northeast Assam and neighboring regions in the lower tropospheric levels. Under its influence:
- Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (40-50 kmph) over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim over the next five days.
- Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura over the next five days.
- Isolated heavy rainfall over Sikkim on May 20th and 21st, and very heavy rainfall over Assam and Meghalaya on May 20th.
Western Disturbance Impact
A Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation lies over north Pakistan and its neighborhood in the lower tropospheric levels, with a trough aloft in the middle tropospheric westerlies along longitude 65°E to the north of latitude 28°N. This will cause isolated to scattered light rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh on May 20th and 21st, and Uttarakhand over the next seven days.
Strong Surface Winds
Strong surface winds (25-35 kmph) are expected over Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi, and Rajasthan over the next 4-5 days.
Temperature Observations and Heat Wave Warnings
Maximum temperatures were recorded between 43-46°C in most parts of Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, and Rajasthan, and many parts of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and West Madhya Pradesh. Temperatures ranged between 40-42°C in many parts of Vidarbha, with isolated pockets of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Maharashtra, and the plains of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand experiencing similar heat. These temperatures were above normal by 2-4°C in many parts of Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh, and isolated pockets of Rajasthan and Saurashtra & Kutch.
Heat Wave Warnings:
- Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions are likely in many pockets over Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi from May 20th to 24th, West Rajasthan from May 21st to 24th, East Rajasthan from May 22nd to 24th, and some parts of West Uttar Pradesh on May 20th and 21st, and East Uttar Pradesh on May 20th.
- Heat wave conditions are expected in many parts of West Rajasthan on May 20th, some parts of East Rajasthan on May 20th and 21st, isolated pockets of East Uttar Pradesh from May 21st to 24th, West Uttar Pradesh from May 22nd to 24th, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, and north Madhya Pradesh from May 20th to 24th, Uttarakhand from May 20th to 22nd, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal on May 20th, Jharkhand on May 20th and 21st, and Odisha from May 21st to 24th.
- Hot and humid weather is likely over Konkan & Goa on May 20th and 21st, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Odisha on May 20th.
- Warm night conditions are expected over East Rajasthan from May 20th to 24th.
Stay prepared and stay safe by following local weather updates and warnings.
Source: India Meteorological Department
